Biostatistics Weekly Seminar

Fallacy of the transposed conditional, from Bernoulli to the replication crisis and beyond

Aubrey Clayton, PhD

For as long as there has been statistical inference, practitioners have been confusing the probability of data-given-hypothesis and the probability of hypothesis-given-data, the ďfallacy of the transposed conditional.Ē In this talk, Iíll survey the history of this mistake including recent examples in disparate fields, up to and including present-day orthodox statistical practice. Iíll argue that the fallacy represents a larger failure of thinking about probability and that the same error underlies much of the current crisis of replication in science. Finally, Iíll share thoughts about what we should do to ensure the statistical methods of the future are built on a solid foundation.

Zoom (Link to Follow)
19 January 2022

Speaker Itinerary

Topic revision: r1 - 04 Jan 2022, SimonVandekar

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