Biostatistics Weekly Seminar

For as long as there has been statistical inference, practitioners have been confusing the probability of data-given-hypothesis and the probability of hypothesis-given-data, the “fallacy of the transposed conditional.” In this talk, I’ll survey the history of this mistake including recent examples in disparate fields, up to and including present-day orthodox statistical practice. I’ll argue that the fallacy represents a larger failure of thinking about probability and that the same error underlies much of the current crisis of replication in science. Finally, I’ll share thoughts about what we should do to ensure the statistical methods of the future are built on a solid foundation.

Zoom (Link to Follow)
19 January 2022
1:30pm