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MarieDavidian20210217
(09 Feb 2021,
AndrewSpieker
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%HEAD{ NAME="Marie Davidian, !PhD" AFFILIATION="North Carolina State University" TITLE="Estimating vaccine efficacy over time after a randomized study is unblinded" IMAGELINK="https://www4.stat.ncsu.edu/~davidian/image/marie.JPG" }% The COVID-19 pandemic due to the novel coronavirus SARS CoV-2 has inspired remarkable breakthroughs in development of vaccines against the virus and the launch of several phase 3 vaccine trials in Summer 2020 to evaluate vaccine efficacy (VE). Trials of vaccine candidates using mRNA delivery systems developed by Pfizer and Moderna have shown substantial VEs of 94-95\%, leading the US Food and Drug Administration to issue Emergency Use Authorizations and subsequent widespread administration of the vaccines. As the trials continue, a key issue is the possibility that VE may wane over time. Ethical considerations dictate that all trial participants be unblinded and those randomized to placebo be offered vaccine, leading to trial protocol amendments specifying unblinding strategies. Crossover of placebo subjects to vaccine complicates inference on waning of VE. We focus on the particular features of the Moderna trial and propose a statistical framework based on a potential outcomes formulation within which we develop methods for inference on whether or not VE wanes over time and estimation of VE at any post-vaccination time. The framework clarifies assumptions made regarding individual- and population-level phenomena and acknowledges the possibility that subjects who are more or less likely to become infected may be crossed over to vaccine differentially over time. The principles of the framework can be adapted straightforwardly to other trials. %TAIL{DATE="17 February 2021"}% <!-- * Set HEAD = <div class="w3-card-2" id="task" style="max-width:750px; margin-left: 0px;"> <header class="w3-container w3-blue" style="padding:40px"><h1>Biostatistics Weekly Seminar</h1><br><h2 style="color:white;">%TITLE%<br><br>%NAME%<br>%AFFILIATION%</h2></header><div class="w3-container" style="padding:40px"><IMG SRC=%IMAGELINK% align="left" id="mug"/> * Set TAIL = <br><h3>Zoom (Link to Follow)<br>%DATE%<br>1:30pm</h3></div></div><br>[[%TOPIC%Itinerary][Speaker Itinerary]] --> <style> .w3-card-2,.w3-example{box-shadow:0 2px 4px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.16),0 2px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.12)!important} .w3-blue,.w3-hover-blue:hover{color:#fff!important;background-color:#2196F3!important} .w3-container{padding:0.01em 16px} .foswikiTopic {font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif;} /* Removes location hierarchy (usually written in grey text) */ .patternHomePath {display:none;} /* Removes bar with edit and attach buttons and location hierarchy */ .patternTop{display:none;} h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6{font-family: 'Montserrat','Open Sans', sans-serif;font-weight:700;} h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6{color:#bf1735;} h1:first-of-type{color:#2a3e6e;margin-bottom:25px;margin-top:5px;} .foswikiImage{margin-left:-9px;} img#mug{padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom:25px; height:250px;} </style>
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Topic revision: r1 - 09 Feb 2021,
AndrewSpieker
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