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(15 Nov 2021,
SimonVandekar
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-- Main.SimonVandekar - 25 Oct 2021 %HEAD{ NAME="Beth Handorf, !PhD" AFFILIATION="Fox Chase Cancer Center, PA" TITLE="Cost-effectiveness Models of Therapy Sequence in Advanced Cancer" IMAGELINK="https://www.foxchase.org/sites/fccc/files/photo/Handorf-Elizabeth1-640x860.jpg" }% When studying health-economic outcomes, particularly for new treatments, it is common for subject-level cost and effectiveness data to be unavailable. Researchers have therefore developed techniques to synthesize data from published literature. One useful method is microsimulations, where a model framework consisting of health states is developed, and simulated patients move through the model, transitioning from state to state probabilistically. Motivated by a study of metastatic prostate cancer, we develop a general microsimulation framework to estimate the cost-effectiveness of therapy order (e.g. A→B vs. B→A). We discuss the advantages of microsimulation models over Markov cohort models for this type of analysis, and develop strategies to infer time-dependent state-transition probabilities based on survival curves available in published literature. We also develop a novel calibration method which both ensures that model-based results match overall survival data from target trials, and accounts for dependence of outcomes within patients across health states. We demonstrate how the Nelder-Mead method can be used to select parameters which minimize the difference between the target trial results and the model-based results. We demonstrate our method in a study of therapy sequence for prostate cancer. %TAIL{DATE="08 December 2021"}% <!-- * Set HEAD = <div class="w3-card-2" id="task" style="max-width:750px; margin-left: 0px;"> <header class="w3-container w3-blue" style="padding:40px"><h1>Biostatistics Weekly Seminar</h1><br><h2 style="color:white;">%TITLE%<br><br>%NAME%<br>%AFFILIATION%</h2></header><div class="w3-container" style="padding:40px"><IMG SRC=%IMAGELINK% align="left" id="mug"/> * Set TAIL = <br><h3>Zoom (Link to Follow)<br>%DATE%<br>1:30pm</h3></div></div><br>[[%TOPIC%Itinerary][Speaker Itinerary]] --> <style> .w3-card-2,.w3-example{box-shadow:0 2px 4px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.16),0 2px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.12)!important} .w3-blue,.w3-hover-blue:hover{color:#fff!important;background-color:#2196F3!important} .w3-container{padding:0.01em 16px} .foswikiTopic {font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif;} /* Removes location hierarchy (usually written in grey text) */ .patternHomePath {display:none;} /* Removes bar with edit and attach buttons and location hierarchy */ .patternTop{display:none;} h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6{font-family: 'Montserrat','Open Sans', sans-serif;font-weight:700;} h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6{color:#bf1735;} h1:first-of-type{color:#2a3e6e;margin-bottom:25px;margin-top:5px;} .foswikiImage{margin-left:-9px;} img#mug{padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom:25px; height:250px;} </style>
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Topic revision: r1 - 15 Nov 2021,
SimonVandekar
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